tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post5181020697735751680..comments2024-03-28T12:23:39.665+00:00Comments on Coppola Comment: Correlations-R-UsFrances Coppolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-25861328339370234212013-02-01T21:40:24.390+00:002013-02-01T21:40:24.390+00:00"In which case one or the other effectively h..."In which case one or the other effectively has no control whatsoever of monetary policy."<br /><br />Maybe monetary policy is better understood as some sort of worldwide weighted average of every (major) central bank's policy (within a floating exchange rate area with no exchange controls), which individually can only pull so much as their own weight. In which case everybody is in control without anybody being fully so; which, if so, is probably a positive feature, as it smooths the impact of single agent mistakes.<br /><br />This is consistent with there being effectively one worldwide (developed) stock market, with national indices all strongly correlated.cighttp://commentisglee.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-91961228903521209242013-02-01T10:23:37.617+00:002013-02-01T10:23:37.617+00:00An 'energy standard' no less !
That sugge...An 'energy standard' no less !<br /><br />That suggests any additional money entering the system (via borrowing or printing) not matched by a corresponding increase in prevailing quality raw energy provision, or proportionate efficiency savings, will, by definition, be inflationary.<br /><br />I think we may already be there? The year of 2005 is claimed to be a watershed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-52740470141333346212013-01-31T23:51:46.816+00:002013-01-31T23:51:46.816+00:00Making a distinction between the bond market and t...Making a distinction between the bond market and the "real" economy is wrong. They are both part of the economy. The real economy is the real (physical) part, and the bond market is one component of the informational machinery.<br /><br />There is no determining a particular sequence of cause and effect here. The bond market neither leads nor lags the real economy, they influence one another on a continual basis. <br /><br />Certainly you could posit that the real economy tends to dominate the informational one, and that may well be a reasonable position but you can't possibly prove or disprove such an assertion.<br /><br />scepticusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-38170058070885175752013-01-31T23:26:54.668+00:002013-01-31T23:26:54.668+00:00" Hang on. I think you are getting confused. ..." Hang on. I think you are getting confused. At the time that I am talking about (2010-11) there had only been one round of UK QE. Look at the chart.<br /><br />I would be the first to say that the later rounds were questionable in objective and even more questionable in achievement. But if you think inflation rose in the second half of 2010 because of UK QE, then you are arguing that the FIRST round was overdone."<br /><br />Your chart relates to nominal 10-yr gilt yields, not inflation. The first 2009 round was probably around £50 billion overdone to strictly meet the target. However, I am not saying that as some sort of inflationist criticism merely an observation. Moreover, CPI would rise above target in the second half of 2010 and 2011, not just from an overly expansionary QE, but from an economy with supply-side rigidities and not as much excess capacity as the MPC assumed. That is the point I am making that the MPC overestimate how much excess capacity there really is in the UK economy. If there is not much you just get price increases without output rising.<br /><br />I see the point you are making with correlations. But I think you are reading way too much into yields. Always dangerous to reason from price changes but the same influences over the last 4 years would be impacting the UST market and the UK gilt market at the same time. So yes, correlation. Some causes of spikes and dips over the last four years. There was an utter collapse in the index-linked bonds during the financial crisis as investors expected deflation. When the BoE and Fed commenced QE and raised inflation expectations there was a shift out of nominal bonds towards index-linked bonds. See charts below. Huge influence of the ebb and flow of the EZ peripheral crisis leading to safe haven flows. GDP growth expectations in the economy.<br />https://www.vanguard.co.uk/documents/adv/literature/inflation-linked-bonds.pdf <br /><br />" Unless you, like others, are arguing that the UK economy was reacting to the US's QE2 programme. And as I have already pointed out, if that is the case then how effective can the UK's monetary policy really be anyway? "<br /><br />I really can't see how you get from seeing correlations in government debt markets to " the UK economy was reacting to the US's QE2 programme." The bond market is not the economy. The bond market is usually reacting to what is happening in the economy.Richardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07937606253138392580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-17198151558769698602013-01-31T22:52:05.493+00:002013-01-31T22:52:05.493+00:00Hi Frances- scpeticus here. Just clocked that you ...Hi Frances- scpeticus here. Just clocked that you are Cat in a Box. Thanks for acknowledging my input via FTAV on that negative rate stuff by the way. It would be nice if Izzy did the same occasionally. Anyway, never mind.<br /><br />I have written at considerable length in the past about the impossibility of independant national monetary policy given that we are all so tightly coupled, on my blog which is at "liminalhack". <br /><br />The coupling of policy like this represents a very important constraint on how the global system can evolve and significantly limits degress of freedom in policy.<br /><br />All that said, its vital to look through all this monetary stuff to get at the underlying economic variables which are information and energy. <br /><br />People talking about the end of banking and the current monetary system are trying to imagine what comes next. I suggest that what comes next is not some insane government driven banking utility but, whether we like it or not, the complete financialisation of energy.<br /><br />The only genuine store of value existing in sufficiently vast quantity and of sufficiently guaranteed desirability lies buried under the earths surface in the form of the remaining fossil fuel stock.<br /><br />It will, regardless of policy, become the place in which unrecycled profits of the private sector (aka government debt) are deposited.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />scepticushttp://liminalhack.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-68786867931407415182013-01-31T22:13:00.807+00:002013-01-31T22:13:00.807+00:00I have never advocated either theft or the use of ...I have never advocated either theft or the use of violence.<br /><br />I asked you to abide by the rules of my blog. Unfortunately you are not doing so. You are no longer welcome here.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-34663032075341663232013-01-31T22:13:00.670+00:002013-01-31T22:13:00.670+00:00In a completely different industry I have always b...In a completely different industry I have always been amazed at how otherwise brilliant people find it difficult to get their heads round quite fundamental statistical principles. Stats is the science of uncertainty and there are fundamental principles that need to be obeyed and yes, >> 101 level!<br /><br />People play with numbers all the time as if they were statistically independent while the underlying dimensionality of their massive datasets can be quite small. Since the 'proper' calculations can be incredibly computer intensive, we end up with decisions taken on the basis of laptop spreadsheets driven by the ignorant.<br /><br />The frightening thing is that these same people hold so much sway over decisions taken that affect us all. Rumour-based ideology has replaced science and investigation, particularly recently. John@MoneyPrinciplehttp://www.themoneyprinciple.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-71754991690223935242013-01-31T21:57:29.191+00:002013-01-31T21:57:29.191+00:00Christ didn't believe in the use of violence, ...Christ didn't believe in the use of violence, yet you advocate theft as a social more? Seriously, if you see a contradiction, check your premises out. Theft and the use of violence is wrong IN EVERY OCCASION, isn't it?Kevin Hugheshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03275033592355490174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-14685362721039157142013-01-31T21:52:28.950+00:002013-01-31T21:52:28.950+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Kevin Hugheshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03275033592355490174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-61620994688382149212013-01-31T21:46:26.981+00:002013-01-31T21:46:26.981+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Kevin Hugheshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03275033592355490174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-86275375278766887372013-01-31T21:16:46.248+00:002013-01-31T21:16:46.248+00:00Hang on. I think you are getting confused. At the ...Hang on. I think you are getting confused. At the time that I am talking about (2010-11) there had only been one round of UK QE. Look at the chart. <br /><br />I would be the first to say that the later rounds were questionable in objective and even more questionable in achievement. But if you think inflation rose in the second half of 2010 because of UK QE, then you are arguing that the FIRST round was overdone. Unless you, like others, are arguing that the UK economy was reacting to the US's QE2 programme. And as I have already pointed out, if that is the case then how effective can the UK's monetary policy really be anyway?<br /><br />About the 2010 shocks - well, ok, maybe not strictly "black swans". But for me they fit the "black swan" description rather better than the financial crisis, which was not only entirely possible but widely predicted. "Generally considered impossible" = heads in sand. <br /><br /><br /><br />Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-16694488211757274312013-01-31T20:59:07.845+00:002013-01-31T20:59:07.845+00:00" But you really can't claim that an incr..." But you really can't claim that an increase in inflation to more than double the target was what the MPC intended. "<br /><br />Of course it was not intended and that was not what I meant. The Bank knew there would be exogenous factors because the large depreciation of the currency during 2008 also affects prices with a 12-24 month lag. The reason I am banging on about how they see the output gap is because it impacts their policy decisions over the quantity of QE that they estimate the economy needs to maintain the policy target. They can't do anything about exogenous factors such as VAT or much about the oil price effect on the economy. However, a traditional monetarist would say if they had not overdone the QE, sterling would have appreciated offsetting some of the impact of the oil price rise. Note a monetarist would not criticise QE, especially in 2009. What they would say is the later QEs were overdone. <br /><br />The Bank use a New Keynesian model to estimate how much slack they think there is in the economy, the output gap. The output gap can't be measured, it can only be estimated or inferred. The reason why that is important and relates to CPI is because when the Bank estimate a large output gap they believe price pressures, exogenous or domestic will be absorbed. That is firms and retailers etc will lack pricing power to pass on their increasing costs to consumers through higher prices i.e. they will be forced to take the hit to their profits. That did not happen and firms passed on their higher input costs to customers. Therefore, that is what I mean about the earlier QE being too much for the Bank to hit their target and why the failure relates to output gapology. Personally, I am fine with CPI being above target and would be unperturbed with CPI at 5%. However, the Bank really need a better policy target that people know what to expect.<br /><br />" There were other factors at play - as is evident from the fact that the MPC didn't raise interest rates early in 2011, which might have been expected from the inflation figures. Those other factors in my view would have included the oil price, along with the VAT rise and other mostly exogenous factors. The MPC interpreted the 2010-11 inflation as temporary and the underlying trend as deflation, and therefore decided to tolerate inflation well above target. "<br /><br />Yes it would be a big mistake to raise rates based on headline inflation. The future is what they are concerned with and within the constraints of their remit they would only raise rates if inflation expectations were becoming unanchored. <br /><br />" In 2010, for example, there were three "black swan" events - the Japan earthquake, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and the Icelandic volcano - all of which shocked the global economy. "<br /><br />Sorry to be a pedant but an earthquake, oil spill and volcano are maybe low probability or tail risks but they are not black swan events. A true black swan event is something that is generally considered impossible until it happens. My apologies for diverting your thread.<br />Richardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07937606253138392580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-32167813840178367632013-01-31T20:55:14.587+00:002013-01-31T20:55:14.587+00:00I remind you of the rules of my blog:
- please co...I remind you of the rules of my blog:<br /><br />- please confine your remarks to the subject of the post<br /><br />- please refrain from personal attacks on me or on any other commenters<br /><br />Your comment breaks both of my rules. <br /><br />You are welcome to post polite constructive comments here, but I will delete any further comments from you that attack me or my beliefs or promote your ideology.<br /><br />I would remind you that the world of Atlas Shrugged is an atheist one. My Christian beliefs therefore have no relevance to your comment.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-22435284786185376092013-01-31T20:49:32.330+00:002013-01-31T20:49:32.330+00:00The world in Atlas Shrugged describes the one we a...The world in Atlas Shrugged describes the one we are currently living in, complete with Pirates and the talented leaving our shores for better climes. You are a Christian Frances, who heartily believes in the social contract and running the planet like a train-set as an altruist who wishes to use the brute force of the state to rob its way to create your vision. <br /><br />You were taught from a very early age that theft is wrong Frances, but you heartily agree with collective theft and cannot fathom this is wrong. How about respecting civil society, you know,voluntary networks, peacefully formed to solve SOCIAL problems? Kevin Hugheshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03275033592355490174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-82543470493585351662013-01-31T19:45:52.580+00:002013-01-31T19:45:52.580+00:00I don't agree with you. I have read Atlas Shru...I don't agree with you. I have read Atlas Shrugged and it isn't a world I recognise or would want to live in.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-18743740532499591762013-01-31T19:26:11.520+00:002013-01-31T19:26:11.520+00:00There should be NO monetary policy whatsoever on p...There should be NO monetary policy whatsoever on planet earth. The idea that groups of people should be constrained in their purposeful actions by a body of elite humans (that think they know what is best for all) is quite frankly absurd. The welfare/warfare state is dying. We are living the world of Atlas Shrugged Frances, I suggest you read it quickly. Kevin Hugheshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03275033592355490174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-67927267595383863532013-01-31T16:01:47.166+00:002013-01-31T16:01:47.166+00:00No, I'm certainly not suggesting that monetary...No, I'm certainly not suggesting that monetary policy has no effect. But you really can't claim that an increase in inflation to more than double the target was what the MPC intended. There were other factors at play - as is evident from the fact that the MPC didn't raise interest rates early in 2011, which might have been expected from the inflation figures. Those other factors in my view would have included the oil price, along with the VAT rise and other mostly exogenous factors. The MPC interpreted the 2010-11 inflation as temporary and the underlying trend as deflation, and therefore decided to tolerate inflation well above target.<br /><br />I think the answer is that we don't know how much impact QE really has. There are so many other things affecting output and NGDP that it's very hard to identify QE-specific effects. In 2010, for example, there were three "black swan" events - the Japan earthquake, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and the Icelandic volcano - all of which shocked the global economy. How much each of these shocks contributed to the 2010 downturn and subsequent recovery and how much was due to other things is very hard to say. But I regard it as highly unlikely that the oil price rise in the second half of 2010 had less effect on inflation, output and NGDP than monetary policy.<br />Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-13351019107227179842013-01-31T14:23:29.615+00:002013-01-31T14:23:29.615+00:00" CPI inflation rose to well over 4% during 2..." CPI inflation rose to well over 4% during 2010-11 when the MPC was not doing QE. There is no way that rise can be attributed to monetary policy. "<br /><br />The CB monetary policy stance affects expectations immediately. Money affects output with a 6 month lag. Money affects prices with a 12-24 month lag. So it is prior monetary policy that would affect CPI during 2010-11.<br />http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/externalmpcpapers/extmpcpaper0006.pdf<br /><br />The MPC pay little attention to where CPI is today because that is bygone MP. What they are basing their decisions on is where CPI will be 2 years later. So whether the MPC do QE or not is determined by where future prices will be because that is the target of their MP remit. For obvious reasons that relies heavily on their forecasting models being accurate. What they got wrong is they did not believe UK businesses would be able to pass on price increases (output gapology).<br /><br />I don't want to put words in your mouth but one often reads people assuming that things would have been exactly the same in the absence of MP actions. They do not consider the counterfactual that output and nominal GDP would have been much lower in the absence of activist QE MP. Perfectly valid to say the MP actions were not enough or too much. The Bank research calculates that their QEs raised nominal GDP 6% from where it would have been in the absence of MP activism. Basically those who believe QE has been ineffective are assuming NGDP would have been the same in the absence of QE. Others calculate the impact at a lower level and at the cost of credibility. This was an interesting post by Simon Ward on the counterfactual..<br />http://moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2013/1/9/monetary-impact-of-uk-qe-much-smaller-than-claimed-by-boe.htmlRichardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07937606253138392580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-77613365756044219392013-01-31T02:50:55.235+00:002013-01-31T02:50:55.235+00:00I did not suggest that the UK's monetary tools...I did not suggest that the UK's monetary tools were ineffective. That was implicit in Robert's statement that UK gilt yields always follow USTs. All I did was note that if that is true, and gilt yields therefore rose as a consequence of US QE rather than anything in the UK economy, then the UK does not have control of gilt yields. And as variables are not independent of each other, it therefore seems unlikely that the UK would have control of anything else either. My pointing out the implications of someone else's statement does not indicate that I agree with it.<br /><br />CPI inflation rose to well over 4% during 2010-11 when the MPC was not doing QE. There is no way that rise can be attributed to monetary policy. But there is noticeable correlation between the rise in CPI inflation, the rise in UK gilt yields and the rise in the oil price at that time. To me the supply-side problem in the UK economy is obvious. 1970s redux, but with more supportive monetary policy, a much more sensible attitude to sterling and far tighter fiscal policy.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-91012906477669854482013-01-31T01:33:22.152+00:002013-01-31T01:33:22.152+00:00Where I think you are wrong is to concentrate on a...Where I think you are wrong is to concentrate on a monetary tool and not the actual target. You are assuming and defining the tool as ineffective if yields move unrelated to CB actions. I don't see why that would make a transmission mechanism ineffective. Remember the BoE is not targeting interest rates or the exchange rate, it is targeting CPI. Their only interest in those variables is in relation to how they help it to fulfill its remit. Yields rising would only be a failure of monetary policy if they caused CPI to fall below the target.<br /><br />The BoE interpretation of failure to fulfill its remit is for CPI to fall below the target and success is to keep it at or above the target. They have achieved that so within the definition of the remit the monetary tools have been effective. If the monetary tools were ineffective the economy would have suffered from deflation. They have been quite clear for years that they considered below target to be something that they would avoid even if it meant being above the CPI target, as long as inflation expectations remained anchored. The Bank was quite right about that because imported inflation, tax changes, tuition fees etc affecting headline CPI is no reason for the MPC to tighten policy. Also important to remember that when CPI surprised the Bank and hit 5%, it was a surprise to them because Keynesian output gapology had led them to believe that business would be unable to pass on price increases in a depressed economy. Well they did pass them on suggesting the output gap is not that large or the UK economy has supply side problems that the Bank can't fix. In the long run monetary policy can't change real variables. Only the government can fix supply side problems. Of course, maybe the economy is not as depressed as indicated by the GDP figures. A monetarist would just say they injected too much money in 2010.<br /><br />I seem to be rambling on, but it is not the monetary tools that are ineffective because the BoE has not failed in its remit. What is deficient is the remit in that it has been inadequate in promoting a full recovery. Change the remit and you get better outcomes.<br /><br />Richardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07937606253138392580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-23739899975349421392013-01-31T00:32:58.563+00:002013-01-31T00:32:58.563+00:00John, that is indeed the problem. It's a consi...John, that is indeed the problem. It's a considerable puzzle, not least because there are so many variables it all gets exceedingly complicated. <br /><br />Stats 101 is nowhere near adequate. Even I, maths bozo though I am, have done considerably more stats than that, and most economists have done far more than me. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-3586725992441644862013-01-31T00:08:51.922+00:002013-01-31T00:08:51.922+00:00It's the danger of looking for correlations be...It's the danger of looking for correlations between variables where there is collinearity. In this case correlations are meaningless. At least partial correlation should be used (ie correlation between the residuals after all linear effects have been removed).<br /><br />Of course correlation does not imply causality and as you demonstrate looking at a sterling QE chart in isolation is totally misleading when the US is doing much the same thing.<br /><br />Any analysis of time data runs into this problem then it is only detailed study that can sometimes extract the 'truth'. <br />Economists should of course have done a stats 101 course and hopefully rather more.<br />John@MoneyPrinciplehttp://www.themoneyprinciple.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-867891387947623342013-01-30T23:43:18.048+00:002013-01-30T23:43:18.048+00:00Alister,
Do you have any constructive remarks to ...Alister,<br /><br />Do you have any constructive remarks to make about the contents of this post? If not, please go away.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-65205802077427660642013-01-30T23:40:38.586+00:002013-01-30T23:40:38.586+00:00Hi Richard
Monetary policy is not just about cont...Hi Richard<br /><br />Monetary policy is not just about controlling gilt yields, but that is one policy tool. If that tool is completely ineffective, what makes you think the others are any better?<br /><br />I included the GBPUSD chart in the post for precisely this reason. Sterling did appreciate a bit against USD at the time of the 2010 oil price rise, which would have neutralised the effect to some extent. However, we know (anecdotally) that the UK did experience a real oil price rise at that time. I agree a composite chart would help.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-60823270037146018682013-01-30T23:01:29.084+00:002013-01-30T23:01:29.084+00:00That is why I have always liked you, Richard, such...That is why I have always liked you, Richard, such a fine mind. So clear. So to the point. You just don't waste any time and that's the best type of economy imaginable, isn't it? To be able to avoid wasting time and just do the things you love instead? We will live long and happy lives, Richard. Our thoughts are spontaneous, though, not guided by any particular God, thankfully. You and only you, in other words, control what you think because even absolute authority fails to escape the spontaneous state of our Universe. <br /><br />We should, just the boys and us, all have summer drinks in the Botanical Garden sometime :)Alisternoreply@blogger.com