tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post1103665500499753704..comments2024-03-18T09:09:07.887+00:00Comments on Coppola Comment: The many shades of defaultFrances Coppolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-51662378301256183372012-02-29T12:56:33.409+00:002012-02-29T12:56:33.409+00:00The EU politicos and the Ecb are wrapping themselv...The EU politicos and the Ecb are wrapping themselves in knots and creating so many potential black swans that the odds on one of them not making a appearance would be ultimate black swan in itself.<br /><br />The joker in the pack is the German constitutional court, they have made it quite plain, this far and not further (last sept) since then they all have gone further and much further is needed. I fancy a full blown German constitutional crisis is on the horizon.Seanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04362169593902131947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-68696967335439997412012-02-28T10:46:23.491+00:002012-02-28T10:46:23.491+00:00Hi Tim,
I heard about the ECB's suspension of...Hi Tim,<br /><br />I heard about the ECB's suspension of Greek collateral after I wrote this post. It isn't quite what it seems though. Greek bond holders will be able to use their bonds as collateral with the Hellenic National Bank instead under the ELA. All they have done is move the collateral risk from the ECB to the HNB, which I suppose makes sense but doesn't actually treat the bonds as the junk they really are.<br /><br />S&P indicated that Greece would return to CCC if the PSI deal was successfully concluded. <br /><br />I think the game all along has been to turn Greece into a mini-Germany. I don't think there is any possibility of Cyprus law being used instead, because Cyprus itself is also on the list for "German treatment".Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-43682964327861522662012-02-28T09:08:25.427+00:002012-02-28T09:08:25.427+00:00See comment below via http://ftalphaville.ft.com/b...See comment below via http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/28/900771/ecb-temporarily-suspends-greek-collateral<br /><br /><< German media reports add that a return to CCC rating for Greece will happen in due course. Btw, the way please note that the progress that Horst Reichenbach and his Task Force are making in what is called the "State-Building" of Greece, is widely reported in the German media. <br />Reichenbach is an "old hand" in this type of challenge as he was very much involved in the reconstruction of the East German economy post-German Reunification. I refer to his years at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. >><br /><br />Do you think this means that a hard line German view of law and bureaucracy will be imposed? I think I would prefer Cyprus law if I were a Greek.polit2khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08184279620350984044noreply@blogger.com